Oil & Gas Industry in India
Latest update: October, 2017
- Oil consumption has expanded at a CAGR of 3.3 per cent during FY2008–16F to reach 4.0 mbpd by 2016.
- Due to the expected strong growth in demand, India’s dependency on oil imports is likely to increase further
- Rapid economic growth is leading to greater outputs, which in turn is increasing the demand of oil for production and transportation
- With rising income levels, demand for automobile is estimated to increase, in turn leading to augmented demand for oil and gas.
Notes: F- Forecast, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, mbpd - Million Barrels Per Day
Source: Ministry of oil and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015 BMI Forecasts, Aranca Research
Source: Ministry of oil and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015 BMI Forecasts, Aranca Research
Last Updated: October, 2017
Introduction
The oil and gas sector is among the six core industries in India and plays a major role in influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy.
In 1997–98, the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) was envisaged to fill the ever-increasing gap between India’s gas demand and supply. India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand; therefore the need for oil and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment.
In 1997–98, the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) was envisaged to fill the ever-increasing gap between India’s gas demand and supply. India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand; therefore the need for oil and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment.
The Government of India has adopted several policies to fulfil the increasing demand. The government has allowed 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in many segments of the sector, including natural gas, petroleum products, and refineries, among others. Today, it attracts both domestic and foreign investment, as attested by the presence of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Cairn India.
Market Size
India is expected to be one of the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum consumption growth globally. Total oil imports rose 4.24 per cent year-on-year to US$ 86.45 billion in 2016-17. India’s oil consumption grew 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 212.7 million tonnes in 2016, as against the global growth of 1.5 per cent, thereby making it the third-largest oil consuming nation in the world.
India is the fourth-largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) importer after Japan, South Korea and China, and accounts for 5.8 per cent of the total global trade. Domestic LNG demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.89 per cent to 306.54 MMSCMD by 2021 from 64 MMSCMD in 2015.
The demand of Petroleum Oil and Lubricants grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.6 per cent under the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17)
The country's gas production is expected to touch 90 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) in 2040 from 23.09 BCM in FY2016-17 (till December 2016). Gas pipeline infrastructure in the country stood at 16,240.4 km in November 2016.
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) dominates the upstream segment (exploration and production), and produced around 1,847 thousand metric tonnes (TMT) of crude oil, as against the country’s 2,939 MT oil output in April 2017. The company also accounted for 57 percent of the country’s domestic crude oil production in 2016-17.
Investment
According to data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the petroleum and natural gas sector attracted FDI worth US$ 6.86 billion between April 2000 and June 2017.
Following are some of the major investments and developments in the oil and gas sector:
- World's largest oil exporter Saudi Aramco is planning to invest in refineries and petrochemicals in India as it looks to enter into a strategic partnership with the country.
- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) plans to invest Rs 1.08 trillion (US$ 16.88 billion) over the coming five years for expansion of operations across business segments, of which the company plans to invest Rs 45,000 crore (US$ 7.03 billion) in the petrochemicals segment.
- Vedanta Ltd has planned a capital expenditure of US$ 2.4 billion over FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19, across various projects such as Hindustan Zinc, increasing volumes for its oil and gas business and to double the capacity at the Tuticorin copper smelter.
- Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), along with its partner BP plc, has decided to invest US$ 6 billion for the development of new R-series gas fields in the KG-D6 block.
- Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), have signed an agreement to build integrated refinery-cum-petrochemicals complexes, which would have a capacity of 60 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) and cost approximately US$ 40 billion. The refinery is expected to commence operation by 2022.
- Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) plans to invest US$ 11 billion in exploration and development of blocks in the Krishna Godavari (KG)basin, which is expected to increase gas production by around 30 per cent over the next three-four years.
- The merger process of Vedanta and Cairn India was completed on April 11, 2017, thereby creating a combined entity with a market capitalisation of US$ 15.6 billion and a free float of 49.9 per cent.
- Indian Oil Corporation expects to invest Rs 20,000 crore (US$ 3.1 billion) over the next four years covering 20 projects in order to add a 25 million tonne (MMT) pipeline to its existing pipeline capacity of 93.7 MMT.
- Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) subsidiary, L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering has bagged an order relating to Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) Neelam Re-Development and B173AC projects worth Rs 1,656 crore (US$ 257 million) which involves building four new platforms, a 32 kilometre pipeline and modification work on existing platforms in the India's western off shore basin, Neelam Field. The project is expected to be completed by 2019 and would result in incremental gain of 2.76 million ton crude oil and 4.786 BCM gas until 2034-35.
- The total investment by oil marketing companies (OMCs) on fuel upgradation programme will reach Rs 90,000 crore (US$ 13.95 billion) by 2020, according to Mr K D Tripathi, Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) plans to invest around Rs 40,000 crore (US$ 5.9 billion) to set up a 15 million tonne (MT) refinery at Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu.
- ONGC has signed an agreement with the Government of Andhra Pradesh to invest around Rs 78,000 crore (US$ 11.7 billion) in the Krishna Godavari basin for producing hydrocarbons by FY 2021-22.
Government Initiatives
Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India to promote oil and gas sector are:
- State-run oil firms are planning investments worth Rs 723 crore (US$ 111.30 million) in Uttar Pradesh to improve the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) infrastructure in a bid to promote clean energy and generate employment, according to Mr Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
- The Government of India is planning to introduce a new policy to encourage the use of biofuels in transport fuel and is looking at an investment of Rs 1 lakh crore (US$ 15.64 billion) in the entire value chain.
- The Government of India plans to build a nine million tonne (MT) refinery in Rajasthan as well as a 60 MT refinery in Maharashtra, auction oil and gas fields, increase use of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and is in discussions with Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Saudi Aramco) regarding investments in India, as per Mr Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
- The Government of India plans to merge state oil companies to create integrated oil major that could compete globally, and utilise the synergy between various state entities for achieving efficiency and cost competitiveness in order to create more value for all shareholders.
- The Government of India plans to unveil a new policy for renewing and extending the lease of 28 oil and gas blocks in the country, with a view to attract more investments into these fields.
- The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, Government of India, has approved the awarding of contracts on 23 onshore and 8 offshore contract areas of discovered small oil and gas fields that earlier belonged to Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL).\
Road Ahead
India’s oil demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6 per cent to 458 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (MTOE) by 2040, while demand for energy will more than double by 2040 as economy will grow to more than five times its current size, as stated by Mr Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas.
Gas production will likely touch 90 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) by 2040, subject to adjustment to the current formula that determines the price paid to domestic producers, while demand for natural gas will grow at a CAGR of 4.6 per cent to touch 149 MTOE.
After the completion of certain projects which are undertaken by various refineries, the Refining Capacity of India is expected to reach 256.55 MMTPA by 2019-20.
The demand for petroleum products is estimated to reach 244,960 MT by 2021-22, up from 186,209 MT in 2016, and the demand for natural gas is expected to reach 606 MMSCMD by 2021-22 as against a demand of 473 MMSCMD in 2016-17.
Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.015 as on October 10, 2017
References: Media Reports, Press Releases, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Union Budget 2016-17
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